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Tropical Storm Rina Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192017
500 PM AST Tue Nov 07 2017

Satellite images show that Rina has a sheared appearance with an
asymmetric area of convection near and northeast of the center
along with a large cloud shield in the northern semicircle.  An
earlier ASCAT pass had 35 kt winds well east of the center and,
given that the pass likely missed the strongest winds, the wind
speed is set to 40 kt on this advisory.

Rina is moving in a moderate shear, marginally unstable environment
characterized by cool upper-level temperatures counteracting cool
SSTs. These conditions along the path of the cyclone don't change
much during the next 24-36 hours, so a continuation of the slow
increase in wind speed is forecast. After that time, Rina is
forecast to move over much colder water into higher shear, which
should cause weakening, and will eventually turn Rina into an
extratropical cyclone in about 2 days. Most of the models show only
slight strengthening over the next day or so, and the official
forecast follows suit, close to the SHIPS model for a peak
intensity.

Rina is moving northward, now at 16 kt.  The storm should turn to
the north-northeast around a high over the eastern Atlantic late
tomorrow. Rina should move quite rapidly to the northeast on
Thursday as it becomes embedded within strong mid-latitude flow. The
global models, other than some forward speed differences, remain in
good agreement, and the latest forecast is basically an update of
the previous one, near the corrected-consensus models. Most of the
guidance stretch the system out over the North Atlantic, causing the
low to dissipate by 72 hours west of Ireland.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/2100Z 33.8N  48.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  08/0600Z 36.2N  48.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  08/1800Z 39.4N  48.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  09/0600Z 43.0N  46.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  09/1800Z 48.0N  41.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  10/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

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