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Tropical Depression Nineteen Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192017
500 PM AST Mon Nov 06 2017

The depression has changed little in structure during the past
several hours.  The low-level center remains exposed to the west of
the main area of deep convection due to the influence of westerly
shear and dry air.  The initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on
the earlier ASCAT data and a Dvorak classification of 2.0/30 kt from
TAFB.

Satellite fixes indicate that the system has been moving slowly and
erratically during the past 6 to 12 hours.  Smoothing through the
wobbles yields an initial motion of 020/5 kt.  The combined
influences of a mid-level ridge to the east of the depression and a
shortwave trough to its west should cause the system to move
progressively faster toward the north or north-northeast during the
next couple of days.  Beyond that time, an even faster northeastward
motion is expected when the system becomes embedded in the mid-
latitude westerlies.  The latest track guidance is notably slower
than the previous cycles, and the new NHC track forecast has been
adjusted in that direction.

The cyclone is expected to remain in an environment of moderate
westerly shear while it moves toward cooler waters.  Although these
conditions typically would not favor strengthening, the models do
show the depression deepening during the next couple of days, likely
due to some baroclinic forcing and the expected increase in forward
speed of the system.  The cyclone will likely complete extratropical
transition Wednesday night or early Thursday when it merges with a
cold front.  Overall the intensity guidance has changed little this
cycle, and no change was made to the previous NHC intensity
prediction.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/2100Z 29.9N  50.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  07/0600Z 31.4N  49.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  07/1800Z 34.2N  49.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  08/0600Z 37.6N  48.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  08/1800Z 41.1N  46.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  09/1800Z 48.8N  37.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  10/1800Z 56.0N  14.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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