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Tropical Depression Eighteen Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182017
200 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA
AND SPREADING NORTHWARD OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 82.4W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM ENE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM S OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la
Habana, Matanzas, Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Craig Key to Golden Beach
* Central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12-24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

Interests in the Cayman Islands should monitor the progress of this
system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eighteen
was located by weather radars from Cuba and Grand Cayman near
latitude 21.8 North, longitude 82.4 West. The depression is moving
toward the north-northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue today. A motion toward the northeast with an
increase in forward speed is expected to begin tonight and continue
through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center will move across
west-central Cuba this afternoon and evening, across the Straits of
Florida and near the Florida Keys overnight, and across the
northwestern Bahamas Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm overnight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce the following
rainfall totals:

The Cayman Islands, western and central Cuba, northern Bahamas:
4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches through
Sunday. These rainfall amounts may produce life threatening flash
floods and mudslides.

South Florida, including the Keys: 2 to 4 inches with isolated
maximum totals of 6 inches through Sunday. These rainfall totals
may produce flash flooding, especially in urbanized areas.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
warning area in Cuba later today and the northwestern Bahamas
tonight.  Tropical storm conditions are possible across the upper
Florida Keys and southeast Florida overnight and in the central
Bahamas by Sunday morning.

TORNADOES:  A couple of brief tornadoes are possible across extreme
southern Florida and the Florida Keys this afternoon and evening.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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