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Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182017
500 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE...
...HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA AND SPREADING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 82.6W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SW OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la
Habana, Matanzas, Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Craig Key to Golden Beach
* Central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12-18 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

Interests in the Cayman Islands should monitor the progress of this
system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located by surface observations, radar data, and satellite images
near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 82.6 West. Philippe is moving
toward the north near 29 mph (46 km/h) and this motion is expected
to continue this evening, followed by a turn toward the northeast
by early Sunday morning. A faster motion toward the northeast is
expected on Sunday and continuing into Monday.  On the forecast
track, the center of Philippe will move off of the northern coast
of Cuba and into the Straits of Florida this evening, and move
across the Florida Keys or the southern tip of the Florida peninsula
overnight, and across the northwestern Bahamas Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next
48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
mainly to the east and southeast of the center. A wind gust of 37
mph (59 km/h) was recently reported at Key West International
Airport.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations
is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Philippe is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals:

The Cayman Islands, western and central Cuba, northern Bahamas:
4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches through
Sunday. These rainfall amounts may produce life threatening flash
floods and mudslides.

South Florida, including the Keys: 2 to 4 inches with isolated
maximum totals of 6 inches through Sunday. These rainfall totals
may produce flash flooding, especially in urbanized areas.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring in the
warning area across Cuba. Tropical storm conditions are expected to
occur in the warning area later tonight across the northwestern
Bahamas.  Tropical storm conditions are possible across the upper
Florida Keys and southeast Florida overnight, and in the central
Bahamas by Sunday morning.

TORNADOES:  A couple of brief tornadoes are possible across portions
of South Florida and the Florida Keys this afternoon and evening.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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