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HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172017
2100 UTC THU OCT 12 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE
AZORES WEATHER FORECAST AND WATCH CENTER.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.4N  35.5W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   0 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  973 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  20SE  20SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  25SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.4N  35.5W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.5N  35.7W

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 31.0N  34.6W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  25SE  20SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  80SE  70SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 31.9N  32.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  30SE  25SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  50SE  40SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  90SE  80SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 33.2N  29.6W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  30SE  30SW   0NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 110SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 35.0N  25.6W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 140SE 140SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 42.6N  17.1W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  90SE  70SW  60NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 240SW 240NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 53.0N  10.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 62.5N   2.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.4N  35.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY


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