Hurricane OPHELIA (Text)


Hurricane Ophelia Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172017
1100 PM AST Wed Oct 11 2017

Satellite images indicate that Ophelia continues to get better
organized.  The small eye has become better defined with deeper
convection near the center than 6 hours ago.  Intensity estimates
have continued to rise, and the objective/subjective Dvorak values
range from 77 kt to 90 kt.  The initial intensity is increased to
75 kt, on the low end of the estimates since Ophelia is over
marginal water temperatures and might not be as strong as the
satellite suggests.  Further strengthening is possible given the
fairly low shear environment and marginally warm SSTs, assuming the
hurricane moves around enough to not upwell much cooler water.
Ophelia should keep hurricane-force winds before it transitions into
a strong extratropical low in 3-4 days.  The intensity forecast is
higher than the previous one, near the model consensus.  Almost all
of the guidance now show Ophelia as a powerful extratropical low
affecting Ireland, northern Ireland and Great Britain early next

The hurricane is moving slowly toward the northeast, caught in an
area of light steering south of a flat trough in the mid-latitude
Atlantic.  This trough is forecast to amplify over the central
Atlantic late Thursday, which should steer Ophelia northeastward or
east-northeastward at an increasing forward speed for the next few
days.  Little change was made to the forecast track, leaning on the
ECMWF side of the consensus, which results in generally a faster
track than the previous prediction.

Although all of the guidance keep the center offshore of the
Azores, a tropical storm watch or warning could be needed for the
eastern Azores on Thursday because of the increasing wind radii in
the northwestern quadrant of the cyclone.


INIT  12/0300Z 30.0N  35.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  12/1200Z 30.4N  35.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  13/0000Z 30.9N  34.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  13/1200Z 31.7N  32.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  14/0000Z 32.8N  30.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  15/0000Z 37.0N  22.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  16/0000Z 46.0N  14.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  17/0000Z 56.5N   8.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Forecaster Blake


Standard version of this page

Alternate Formats
About Alternates - E-Mail Advisories - RSS Feeds

Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory - Past Advisories - About Advisories

Marine Forecasts
Latest Products - About Marine Products

Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery - US Weather Radar - Aircraft Recon - Local Data Archive - Forecast Verification - Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense

Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names Wind Scale - Prepare - Climatology - NHC Glossary - NHC Acronyms - Frequently Asked Questions - AOML Hurricane-Research Division

About Us
About NHC - Mission/Vision - Other NCEP Centers - NHC Staff - Visitor Information - NHC Library

Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
Privacy Policy
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Sunday, 31-Dec-2017 12:09:53 UTC