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Tropical Storm Nate Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162017
200 AM EDT Fri Oct 06 2017

...NATE'S CENTER MOVED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND HEADING FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS NATE A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 84.8W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM ESE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Castilla Honduras to the Honduras/Nicaragua border
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Metropolitan New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Honduras, the Bay Islands, western Cuba, the
Yucatan Peninsula, and the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico
should monitor the progress of Nate.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nate was
located by radar from Honduras and an Air Force reconnaissance plane
near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 84.8 West.  Nate is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h).  A turn toward the
north-northwest is expected today, with Nate accelerating along that
heading through Saturday.  On the forecast track, the center of Nate
will move over the Gulf of Honduras and across the northwestern
Caribbean Sea today, and reach the eastern coast of the Yucatan
peninsula Friday evening. Nate will then move into the southern Gulf
of Mexico Friday night and approach the northern Gulf coast Saturday
evening.

Data from the reconnaissance plane and a NOAA buoy indicate that the
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple
of days, and Nate is expected to become a hurricane by the time it
reaches the central Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
mainly to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure from a reconnaissance plane
data is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Nate is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through this weekend:

Southern Honduras and western Nicaragua: 6-10 inches, max 15 inches
Eastern El Salvador and northern to central Honduras: 3 to 5 inches,
max 8 inches
Eastern Yucatan and western Cuba: 2 to 4 inches, max 8 inches
Eastern Belize and the Cayman Islands: 1 to 3 inches

U.S. Central Gulf Coast states: 3 to 6 inches, max 12 inches

Heavy rainfall will occur over a wide area, including locations well
away from the center along the Pacific coast of Central America.
Rainfall across all of these areas may produce life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the
warning area in Honduras during the next few hours.  Hurricane
conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in Mexico
by Friday evening, with tropical storm conditions expected by
late Friday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch areas along
the U.S. Gulf coast beginning Saturday evening, with hurricane
conditions possible in the hurricane watch area Saturday night.

STORM SURGE:  A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in
areas of onshore winds on the Yucatan Peninsula and the adjacent
islands.  Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

SURF:  Swells generated by Nate will affect land areas around the
northwestern Caribbean during the next day or two.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

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