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Tropical Storm Nate Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162017
1100 PM EDT Thu Oct 05 2017

...NATE'S CENTER ABOUT TO MOVE OFFSHORE THE EASTERN COAST OF
HONDURAS...
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE
U.S. GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 84.7W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM ESE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Morgan City, Louisiana,
eastward to the Alabama/Florida border, including the northern and
western shores of Lake Pontchartrain.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued from Morgan City, Louisiana,
eastward to the Mississippi/Alabama border, including metropolitan
New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from the Mississippi/Alabama
border eastward to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line in Florida.  A
Tropical Storm Watch has also been issued west of Morgan City to
Intracoastal City, Louisiana.

The government of Nicaragua has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Nicaragua.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Castilla Honduras to the Honduras/Nicaragua border
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Metropolitan New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Honduras, the Bay Islands, western Cuba, the
Yucatan Peninsula, and the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico
should monitor the progress of Nate.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nate was
located close to the coast of eastern Honduras near latitude 15.8
North, longitude 84.7 West.  Nate is moving toward the northwest
near 12 mph (19 km/h).  A turn toward the north-northwest is
expected overnight, with Nate accelerating along that heading
through Saturday.  On the forecast track, the center of Nate will
move offshore the eastern coast of Honduras during the next several
hours, move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Friday, and
reach the eastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula Friday evening.
Nate will then move into the southern Gulf of Mexico Friday night
and approach the northern Gulf coast Saturday evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Nate
is expected to become a hurricane by the time it reaches the
central Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
mainly to the northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Nate is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through this weekend:

Southern Honduras and western Nicaragua: 6-10 inches, max 15 inches
Eastern El Salvador and northern to central Honduras: 3 to 5 inches,
max 8 inches
Eastern Yucatan and western Cuba: 2 to 4 inches, max 8 inches
Eastern Belize and the Cayman Islands: 1 to 3 inches

U.S. Central Gulf Coast states: 3 to 6 inches, max 12 inches

Heavy rainfall will occur over a wide area, including locations well
away from the center along the Pacific coast of Central America.
Rainfall across all of these areas may produce life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the
warning area in Honduras during the next few hours.  Hurricane
conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in Mexico
by Friday evening, with tropical storm conditions expected by
late Friday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch areas along
the U.S. Gulf coast beginning Saturday evening, with hurricane
conditions possible in the hurricane watch area Saturday night.

STORM SURGE:  A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in
areas of onshore winds on the Yucatan Peninsula and the adjacent
islands.  Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

SURF:  Swells generated by Nate will affect land areas around the
northwestern Caribbean during the next day or two.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

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