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BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Sixteen Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162017
500 PM EDT Wed Oct 04 2017

...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM THE DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 82.5W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM W OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua to Punta Castilla Honduras

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
12-24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Honduras, the Bay Islands, western Cuba and
the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of the
depression.  A hurricane watch could be issued for portions of the
Yucatan Peninsula this evening.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen
was located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 82.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and
this motion is expected to continue tonight.  On the forecast track,
the depression should be nearing the coast of Nicaragua early
Thursday, move across northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras
late Thursday, and emerge into the northwestern Caribbean Sea on
Friday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm
overnight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Friday night:

Nicaragua...15 to 20 inches, isolated 30 inches
Costa Rica and Panama...5 to 10 inches, isolated 20 inches
Honduras...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches

Heavy rainfall will occur over a wide area, including locations well
away from the center along the Pacific coast of Central America.
This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to start in the
warning area in Nicaragua early on Thursday, and spread into
Honduras late Thursday.

SURF:  Swells generated by the cyclone are affecting portions of
the coast of Nicaragua, and will begin to affect other land areas
around the northwestern Caribbean later this week.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

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