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HURRICANE NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162017
1500 UTC SAT OCT 07 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT EAST OF THE
OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA
* NORTHERN AND WESTERN SHORES OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
* EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY
LINE
* WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION, FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE,
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.  PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.  PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N  88.4W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT  23 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  984 MB
EYE DIAMETER  25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO  95 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......110NE  90SE  50SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE  60SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N  88.4W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.7N  87.9W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 29.1N  89.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  50SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 32.1N  88.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  40SE  30SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  80SE  60SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 35.7N  85.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 39.2N  80.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 44.5N  67.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.6N  88.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


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