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TROPICAL STORM NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162017
2100 UTC FRI OCT 06 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA
BORDER TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT EAST OF THE
ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA
* NORTHERN AND WESTERN SHORES OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA HERRERO TO RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO
* PINAR DEL RIO
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
* EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY
LINE.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA HERRERO TO RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY
LINE
* WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF THE THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA
* WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA
* ISLE OF YOUTH

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN WESTERN CUBA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND
THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF NATE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N  85.7W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT  18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......110NE  80SE  20SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N  85.7W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N  85.3W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.0N  87.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  30SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 26.8N  88.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  40SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 29.9N  89.1W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  50SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 33.1N  87.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  80SE  50SW  20NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 39.5N  78.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 43.5N  66.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N  85.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


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