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Tropical Storm Nate Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162017
400 AM CDT Sun Oct 08 2017

The eye of Hurricane Nate moved a few hours ago near or over the
Keesler Air Force base, which is the home of the AF Hurricane
Hunters.  The winds became light and the pressure dropped to 986
mb when the eye passed nearby that location a little after 0500 UTC.
Since that time, Nate continued to move farther inland and surface
observations as well as Doppler radar data indicate that winds have
decreased. The initial intensity has been adjusted downward to 60
kt. Since the circulation is already inland, rapid weakening is
anticipated, and Nate is forecast to become a remnant low in about
36 hours as suggested by SHIPS decay model.

Radar fixes indicate that Nate is moving toward the north-northeast
at 20 kt.  Nate is already embedded within the fast mid-latitude
westerlies, and this flow pattern should keep the cyclone on a
north-northeast to northeast track with increasing forward speed
for the next 2 days.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Nate is producing life-threatening storm surge flooding in areas
of onshore flow and a storm surge warning remains in effect from
Pointe a la Hache to the Okaloosa/Walton county line in Florida.
Maximum flooding of 5 to 8 feet above ground level is expected
along the Mississippi coast within the next several hours.

2. Nate's fast forward speed over land will bring tropical storm
conditions well inland across portions of the southeastern U.S.

3. Nate will bring heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated
totals of 10 inches east of the Mississippi River from the central
Gulf Coast into the Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and
southern Appalachians through Monday, resulting in the potential for
flash flooding in these areas.

4. Moisture from Nate interacting with a frontal zone will also
bring 2 to 5 inches of rain with isolated totals of 7 inches across
the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians Sunday and Monday, which
will increase the risk for flash flooding across these locations.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0900Z 31.5N  88.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  08/1800Z 34.1N  86.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 24H  09/0600Z 38.5N  82.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  09/1800Z 42.5N  75.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  10/0600Z 44.0N  71.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

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