Hurricane MARIA

ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017
2100 UTC TUE SEP 19 2017

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
145 KTS...165 MPH...270 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

ELIZABETH CTY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)

CHERRY PT NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

NEW RIVER NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)

MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)

SURF CITY NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)

NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   4( 9)

ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)

GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  10(15)   4(19)
GREAT EXUMA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)
GREAT EXUMA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)

SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)  23(34)   5(39)
SAN SALVADOR   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  12(14)   2(16)
SAN SALVADOR   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   2( 8)

MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  39(45)  14(59)   2(61)
MAYAGUANA      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  18(18)  12(30)   X(30)
MAYAGUANA      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   9(17)   X(17)

GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   6( 6)  33(39)  45(84)   4(88)   X(88)
GRAND TURK     50  X   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)  48(59)   6(65)   X(65)
GRAND TURK     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  36(39)   3(42)   1(43)

GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)

LES CAYES      34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   5( 8)   X( 8)   1( 9)

PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   8(15)   2(17)   X(17)

CAPE BEATA     34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   4( 9)   5(14)   X(14)   1(15)

PUERTO PLATA   34  X   3( 3)  17(20)  40(60)  16(76)   1(77)   X(77)
PUERTO PLATA   50  X   X( X)   3( 3)  23(26)  18(44)   1(45)   X(45)
PUERTO PLATA   64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)  12(21)   1(22)   X(22)

SANTO DOMINGO  34  1   5( 6)  34(40)  19(59)   5(64)   1(65)   X(65)
SANTO DOMINGO  50  X   1( 1)   9(10)  12(22)   3(25)   X(25)   X(25)
SANTO DOMINGO  64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

PONCE PR       34 62  38(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
PONCE PR       50 12  84(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)
PONCE PR       64  1  72(73)   4(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)

AGUADILLA PR   34 10  88(98)   2(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
AGUADILLA PR   50  2  87(89)   7(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)
AGUADILLA PR   64  X  51(51)  27(78)   1(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)

SAN JUAN PR    34 82  18(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
SAN JUAN PR    50 35  63(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
SAN JUAN PR    64  2  75(77)   1(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)

VIEQUES PR     34 99   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
VIEQUES PR     50 93   5(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
VIEQUES PR     64 24  47(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)

SAINT THOMAS   34 98   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
SAINT THOMAS   50 81   7(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)
SAINT THOMAS   64 10   7(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)

SAINT CROIX    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
SAINT CROIX    50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
SAINT CROIX    64 76   1(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)

SAINT MAARTEN  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

BARBUDA        34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

ANTIGUA        34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

GUADELOUPE     34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

AVES           34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NNNN