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HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017
0300 UTC TUE SEP 19 2017
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
140 KTS...160 MPH...260 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10)
ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8)
GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 12(22)
GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 18(42)
SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17)
SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9)
MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 39(50) 11(61)
MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 8(32)
MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 6(19)
GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 42(45) 34(79) 4(83)
GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 35(50) 4(54)
GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 26(32) 3(35)
CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 3(12)
LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 2(10)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 7(20) 2(22)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 10(13) 4(17) 1(18)
CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 48(54) 15(69) 1(70)
PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 14(38) 1(39)
PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 10(21) 1(22)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 38(54) 5(59) 1(60)
SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 2(25) X(25)
SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11)
PONCE PR 34 1 6( 7) 63(70) 23(93) 2(95) X(95) X(95)
PONCE PR 50 X 1( 1) 29(30) 38(68) 5(73) X(73) X(73)
PONCE PR 64 X X( X) 12(12) 35(47) 6(53) X(53) X(53)
AGUADILLA PR 34 X 4( 4) 41(45) 44(89) 5(94) 1(95) X(95)
AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) 11(11) 50(61) 13(74) 1(75) X(75)
AGUADILLA PR 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 37(39) 14(53) 1(54) X(54)
SAN JUAN PR 34 1 9(10) 76(86) 12(98) 1(99) X(99) X(99)
SAN JUAN PR 50 X 1( 1) 47(48) 36(84) 4(88) X(88) X(88)
SAN JUAN PR 64 X X( X) 24(24) 41(65) 5(70) X(70) X(70)
VIEQUES PR 34 2 39(41) 55(96) 3(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
VIEQUES PR 50 X 5( 5) 71(76) 13(89) 1(90) X(90) X(90)
VIEQUES PR 64 X 1( 1) 53(54) 17(71) 2(73) X(73) X(73)
SAINT THOMAS 34 2 52(54) 43(97) 1(98) 1(99) X(99) X(99)
SAINT THOMAS 50 X 6( 6) 65(71) 6(77) 1(78) X(78) X(78)
SAINT THOMAS 64 X 1( 1) 42(43) 7(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51)
SAINT CROIX 34 3 82(85) 14(99) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
SAINT CROIX 50 1 32(33) 57(90) 2(92) X(92) X(92) X(92)
SAINT CROIX 64 X 10(10) 65(75) 3(78) 1(79) X(79) X(79)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 13 67(80) 4(84) 1(85) X(85) X(85) X(85)
SAINT MAARTEN 50 1 13(14) 4(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)
SAINT MAARTEN 64 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 85 12(97) 1(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 8 31(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 1 11(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
BARBUDA 34 56 10(66) X(66) 1(67) 1(68) X(68) X(68)
BARBUDA 50 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ANTIGUA 34 91 2(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93)
ANTIGUA 50 7 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
ANTIGUA 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
GUADELOUPE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
GUADELOUPE 50 50 X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50)
GUADELOUPE 64 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
AVES 34 82 14(96) 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97)
AVES 50 6 25(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32)
AVES 64 2 8(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
DOMINICA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
DOMINICA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
DOMINICA 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
MARTINIQUE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
SAINT LUCIA 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAINT VINCENT 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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