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Hurricane Maria Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
200 AM AST Wed Sep 20 2017

...CORE OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE MARIA
EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 65.1W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM WSW OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...910 MB...26.87 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Netherlands has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for St. Eustatius.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques
* Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Saba
* St. Maarten
* Guadeloupe
* Dominican Republic west of Puerto Plata to the northern border of
the Dominican Republic and Haiti
* Dominican Republic west of Cabo Engano to Punta Palenque

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Cabo Engano
* Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and the Bahamas should monitor the
progress of Maria.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.  For storm information specific to your area
outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your
national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Maria was located
near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 65.1 West.  Maria is moving
toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h).  A west-northwest
to northwest motion is expected to continue through today, followed
by a northwestward motion on Thursday.  On the forecast track, the
eye of Maria will cross Puerto Rico today, and pass just north of
the northeast coast of the Dominican Republic tonight and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 165 mph (270 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Maria is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in
intensity could occur before the hurricane reaches Puerto Rico, but
Maria is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous category 4 or 5
hurricane as it moves over Puerto Rico.  Slow weakening is expected
after the hurricane emerges over the Atlantic north of Puerto Rico
and the Dominican Republic.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).  A sustained wind of 104 mph (167 km/h) with a wind
gust to 137 mph (220 km/h) was reported within the hour in the
western portion of St. Croix in the U.S. Virgin Islands.

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force
Hurricane Hunter observations is 910 mb (26.87 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of the
warning area in the Leeward Islands this morning.  Tropical storm
and hurricane conditions are occurring over the Virgin Islands and
will spread over Puerto Rico in the next few hours.  Hurricane
conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area in the
Dominican Republic tonight, with tropical storm conditions
expected by later today.  Tropical storm conditions are expected in
the Tropical Storm Warning areas in the Dominican Republic later
today.  Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible on
Thursday in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern
Bahamas.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
and on high-rise buildings could be much stronger than the near-
surface winds indicated in this advisory.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and
destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 7 to 11
feet above normal tide levels in portions of the hurricane warning
area near the British Virgin Islands.

A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves
will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide
levels in the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic, and
1 to 3 ft elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican
Republic and Haiti.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is expected to reach
the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the
time of high tide...

Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands...6 to 9 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north and east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.  Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Friday:

Central and southern Leeward Islands...additional 1 to 3 inches.
Northern Leeward Islands from Barbuda to Anguilla...additional 3 to
6 inches.
U.S. and British Virgin Islands...additional 8 to 12 inches,
isolated 16 inches.
Puerto Rico...12 to 18 inches, isolated 25 inches.
Eastern Dominican Republic...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.

Rainfall on all of these islands will cause life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides.

TORNADOES: Several tornadoes are possible over Puerto Rico and the
U.S. Virgin Islands today.

SURF:  Swells generated by Maria are affecting the Leeward Islands,
Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands.  These swells will begin
affecting the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos
Islands, and the Southeastern Bahamas during the next day or two.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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