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Tropical Depression Fifteen Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
200 PM AST Sat Sep 16 2017

...DISTURBANCE BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.9N 51.6W
ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Barbados and St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Lucia
* Martinique
* Guadeloupe
* Dominica
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of this system.  Additional Tropical Storm or Hurricane
Watches will likely be issued later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
Satellite images indicate that the disturbance has become better
organized and is now classified as a tropical depression.

At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen
was centered near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 51.6 West.  The
depression is moving toward the west near 20 mph (30 km/h).  A
slower west-northwest motion is expected during the next couple of
days.  On the forecast track, the system is expected to approach the
Leeward Islands on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours.  The depression
is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and could be near
hurricane strength when it approaches the Leeward Islands.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible within portions of Leeward
Islands by Monday night or Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions
possible on Monday.

RAINFALL:  The depression is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15
inches across portions of the central and southern Leeward Islands
through Tuesday night.  These rains could cause life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.

SURF:  Swells generated by the depression are expected to begin
affecting the Lesser Antilles by Sunday night.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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