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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Maria Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 17 2017

...MARIA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 56.2W
ABOUT 450 MI...720 KM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Barbados has issued a Hurricane Warning for
Dominica.

The government of St. Lucia has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
St. Lucia.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Dominica

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* St. Lucia

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat
* Guadeloupe
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Anguilla

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Martinique
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.  Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles, including the British
and U. S. Virgin Islands, as well as Puerto Rico should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional Tropical Storm or Hurricane
Watches and Warnings will likely be issued today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Maria was
located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 56.2 West.  Maria is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this
motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through
Tuesday.  On the forecast track, the center of Maria will move
across the Leeward Islands Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Maria is expected to become a hurricane later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are first expected within portions of
the Leeward Islands by Monday night, with tropical storm conditions
beginning on Monday.  Hurricane conditions are possible within the
hurricane watch area by Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions
possible Monday night.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in
the tropical storm watch area Monday or Monday night.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and
destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet
above normal tide levels near where the center of Maria moves
across the Leeward Islands.

RAINFALL:  Maria is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches across the
Leeward Islands, including Puerto Rico and the U.S. and
British Virgin Islands through Wednesday night.  Maria is also
expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches for
the northern and central Windward Islands.  In all the above areas,
these rainfall amounts could cause life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.

SURF:  Swells generated by Maria are beginning to affect the Lesser
Antilles.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

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