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BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 16 2017

...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.2N 50.5W
ABOUT 755 MI...1220 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of St. Lucia has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
St. Lucia.

The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Martinique and Guadeloupe.

The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Dominica.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Lucia
* Martinique
* Guadeloupe
* Dominica

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of this system.  Additional Tropical Storm or Hurricane
Watches will likely be issued later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 12.2 North, longitude 50.5 West.  The system is moving
toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h).  A slower west-northwest
motion is expected during the next couple of days.  On the forecast
track, the system is expected to approach the Leeward Islands on
Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours. The
disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and
could be near hurricane strength when it approaches the Leeward
Islands.

Satellite images indicate that the disturbance has become better
organized, and it is expected to become a tropical cyclone later
today or tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible within portions of Leeward
Islands by Monday night or Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions
possible on Monday.

RAINFALL:  The system is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15
inches across portions of the central and southern Leeward Islands
through Tuesday night.  These rains could cause life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.

SURF:  Swells generated by the system are expected to begin
affecting the Lesser Antilles by Sunday night.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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