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HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017
0900 UTC TUE SEP 19 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE
* DOMINICA
* ST. KITTS... NEVIS... AND MONTSERRAT
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO... CULEBRA... AND VIEQUES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ST. MAARTEN
* ANGUILLA
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ST. MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY
* ANGUILLA
* ISLA SAONA TO PUERTO PLATA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES
* WEST OF PUERTO PLATA TO THE NORTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI
BORDER

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HISPANIOLA... THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS... AND
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA.
ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N  62.3W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  934 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE  70SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N  62.3W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N  61.9W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.7N  63.4W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.6N  64.8W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 18.5N  66.3W...NEAR NORTH COAST PUERTO RICO
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.3N  67.8W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.2N  70.4W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 23.7N  71.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 26.5N  72.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N  62.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


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