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POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017
1500 UTC SAT SEP 16 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
ST. LUCIA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
DOMINICA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE
* GUADELOUPE
* DOMINICA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.  ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE
WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N  50.5W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N  50.5W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N  49.7W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 12.8N  52.8W...TROPICAL STORM
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 13.6N  55.1W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  20SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 14.3N  56.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  20SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 15.0N  58.6W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.3N  61.3W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 17.6N  64.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 18.7N  67.3W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.2N  50.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


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