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Tropical Storm Maria Discussion Number  56
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 29 2017

Maria continues to gradually lose tropical cyclone characteristics
as cool and dry air entrains into the western side of the
circulation.  However, a small area of convection remains to the
east of the center, and recent microwave sounding data indicates
the cyclone still has a warm core.  The initial intensity remains
50 kt based on a combination of subjective satellite intensity
estimates and the CIMSS satellite consensus technique.  Maria is
now expected to become extratropical in about 24 h, and the system
is likely to be absorbed by a larger non-tropical low after the
48-h point.

The initial motion is 070/27.  Maria is embedded in the
mid-latitude westerlies and should continue to move quickly
east-northeast for the remainder of the cyclone's life.  The NHC
forecast, which is changed little from the previous advisory,
incorporates guidance provided by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/0300Z 38.6N  53.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  30/1200Z 40.1N  48.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  01/0000Z 42.7N  42.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  01/1200Z 45.6N  34.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  02/0000Z 48.0N  26.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  03/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven

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