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Tropical Storm Maria Discussion Number  54
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 29 2017

Although Maria is trying to race east-northeastward ahead of a cold
front, satellite images indicate that cold air is already beginning
to entrain into the circulation of the tropical cyclone. Most of
deep convection is limited to a curved band to the east of the
center and an average of Dvorak estimates indicate that the maximum
winds are still 50 kt.  The winds could increase a little due to
baroclinic forcing later today while Maria acquires extratropical
characteristics. Maria should become post-tropical in about 36
hours, and then dissipate or be absorbed by a larger cyclone around
day 3.

Maria is already embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies and is
racing toward the east-northeast at 27 kt. This steering pattern is
forecast to persist, and Maria is anticipated to continue on this
track with an increase in forward speed until dissipation. The NHC
forecast uses guidance provided by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center
and is also in very good agreement with track models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/1500Z 37.5N  60.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  30/0000Z 38.6N  55.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  30/1200Z 40.5N  48.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  01/0000Z 43.5N  40.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  01/1200Z 46.5N  32.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

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