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Hurricane MARIA


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Hurricane Maria Discussion Number  47
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
500 PM EDT Wed Sep 27 2017

Maria's banding structure remains fairly well defined over the
eastern portion of the circulation, however dry air continues to
limit convection over the western half of the hurricane.  The
initial wind speed is once again set at 65 kt, which is based on
the earlier aircraft reports.  The westerly shear over Maria is
forecast to lessen over the next day or so, but cooler waters along
the track of the storm are likely to result in a slow decrease in
intensity.  Maria is expected to become an extratropical low on
Saturday, and be absorbed a larger low pressure area over the
northeastern Atlantic on Sunday.

Maria is moving north-northeastward or 030/6 kt. The hurricane
should turn east-northeastward and begin to accelerate on Thursday
as it becomes embedded within the mid-latitude westerly flow.  By
Saturday, the cyclone should further accelerate ahead of trough
moving off the coast of the northeast United States and eastern
Canada.  As has been the case over the past few days, the spread
in the guidance is largely along track or speed differences, and
the NHC forecast continues to be near the various consensus models
to account for these differences.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria is forecast to slowly move away from the North Carolina
coast this evening.  However, tropical storm conditions are expected
to continue along portions of the North Carolina coast for a few
more hours.  These winds are expected to diminish later this
evening.

2. Swells generated by Maria are affecting much of the east coast
of the United States, Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the
Turks and Caicos Islands.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office for more information.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/2100Z 36.2N  72.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  28/0600Z 36.6N  71.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  28/1800Z 36.9N  68.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  29/0600Z 37.2N  64.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  29/1800Z 38.6N  59.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  30/1800Z 44.0N  43.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  01/1800Z 50.0N  23.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  02/1800Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

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