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Hurricane MARIA


Hurricane Maria Discussion Number  34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft have measured 700-mb
flight-level winds of 101 to 117 kt over the eastern and
southeastern portion of the Maria this morning.  However, surface
wind estimates from the SFMR suggest that these winds are not mixing
to the surface at the usual efficiency, as the highest SFMR winds on
both flights have been around 80 kt.  Based on a blend of the
flight-level and SFMR winds the initial wind speed has been reduced
to 90 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 350/8 kt. A north-northwestward to
northward motion is expected over the next 2 to 3 days while Maria
is steered between a cut-off low/trough over the southeastern U.S.
and eastern Gulf of Mexico, and a subtropical ridge over the
southwestern Atlantic.  Maria is predicted to slow down within the
next couple of days as a high pressure ridge builds to the north of
the hurricane.  After 72 h, Maria should turn east-northeastward as
the ridge to the north weakens and a broad mid-latitude trough
begins to move eastward over the northern United States.  The
dynamical model guidance is in good agreement on this overall
scenario, but there remains a fair amount of spread on the timing of
recurvature, with the ECMWF a little farther west and slower than
much of the remainder of the guidance.  The updated NHC track is
between the ECWMF and the various consensus aids, and very close to
the previous official forecast.  Since Maria is a large hurricane,
the associated tropical-storm-force winds could reach a portion of
the North Carolina coast by mid-week regardless of the exact
forecast track.

Some fluctuations in intensity could still occur during the next
day or so while Maria moves over warm water and remains in a low
shear environment.  Later in the forecast period, cooler waters
from the wake of Hurricane Jose that traversed the same area last
week will likely cause a gradual decrease in intensity.


1. Maria's is forecast to continue moving northward, paralleling the
U.S. east coast, and it is likely that some direct impacts will
occur along portions of the coast by midweek.  Interests along the
coast of the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic should monitor the
progress of Maria, as tropical storm or hurricane watches may be
needed for part of this area later today.

2. Swells from Maria are increasing along the coast of the
southeastern United States and are expected to reach the Mid-
Atlantic coast today.  These swells will likely cause dangerous
surf and rip currents at beaches in these areas through much of
the week.  For more information, please monitor information from
your local National Weather Service office at


INIT  24/1500Z 28.7N  72.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  25/0000Z 29.7N  73.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  25/1200Z 30.8N  73.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  26/0000Z 31.9N  73.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  26/1200Z 32.9N  73.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  27/1200Z 34.4N  73.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  28/1200Z 35.5N  71.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  29/1200Z 36.5N  68.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

Forecaster Brown