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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142017
2100 UTC FRI SEP 15 2017
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N  29.7W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N  29.7W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N  29.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 12.8N  30.8W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 12.9N  32.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 13.0N  33.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 13.2N  34.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 14.6N  38.4W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 16.5N  42.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 18.5N  46.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.6N  29.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 
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