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Tropical Depression Lee Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 17 2017

Deep convection associated with Lee has waned over the past
several hours as dry air and shear take a toll on the tropical
cyclone.  A recent partial ASCAT pass showed 25 kt winds over the
northwest portion of the circulation, assuming that there are
stronger winds to the northeast of the center, the initial intensity
is held at 30 kt, but this could be generous.  The vertical shear
is forecast to increase to greater than 30 kt during the next 24
hours and it is doubtful that Lee will be able to generate enough
organized deep convection to keep its status as a tropical cyclone
for much longer.  As a result of the shear and nearby dry air,
weakening and degeneration into a remnant low is predicted by Monday
night, if not sooner.  The global models show the circulation
dissipating in 2 to 3 days, and so does the NHC forecast.

Lee has turned west-northwestward or 285/9 kt. A west-northwestward
or northwestward motion should continue until the cyclone
dissipates, and little change to the previous NHC track forecast
was required.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0300Z 13.6N  38.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  18/1200Z 14.1N  39.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  19/0000Z 15.2N  41.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  19/1200Z 16.3N  42.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  20/0000Z 17.7N  44.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

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