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Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017
500 AM AST Sat Sep 16 2017

The center of the depression continues to be located on the north
side of a curved band of deep convection, and the outflow is only
expanding to the south and west. Dvorak T-numbers have not changed
and support an initial intensity of 30 kt. The depression has the
opportunity to become a tropical storm during the next 24 to 36
hours before a pronounced upper-level trough digs southward over the
eastern Atlantic and brings strong northerly shear over the cyclone.
The NHC forecast shows some strengthening through Sunday, but
weakening should begin thereafter.  The system should degenerate
into a remnant low in about 4 days.

The depression is moving westward at 6 kt, steered by a narrow
mid-level ridge to the north. The same trough that is bringing the
shear will likely further weaken the ridge to the north, and this
should result in a turn of the cyclone toward the west-northwest.
The NHC track is in the middle of the guidance envelope through 48
hours, but after that time the forecast is uncertain since the
guidance spreads out considerably. During that last period, the NHC
forecast follows the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA and the trend of
the ECMWF.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0900Z 12.6N  32.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  16/1800Z 12.6N  33.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  17/0600Z 12.6N  34.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  17/1800Z 12.7N  35.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  18/0600Z 13.3N  37.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  19/0600Z 15.2N  41.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  20/0600Z 17.0N  44.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  21/0600Z 18.0N  48.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila

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