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ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Hurricane Jose Intermediate Advisory Number 16A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 800 AM AST Sat Sep 09 2017 ...JOSE A LITTLE WEAKER BUT STILL A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 60.7W ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Antigua has downgraded the Hurricane Warning for Barbuda and Anguilla to a Tropical Storm Warning. The government of Antigua has discontinued the Hurricane Watch for Antigua. The government of Antigua has downgraded the Tropical Storm Warning for Antigua to a Tropical Storm Watch. The government of Antigua has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Sint Maarten * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbuda and Anguilla * Saba and St. Eustatius A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * British Virgin Islands * St. Thomas and St. John * Antigua A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 60.7 West. Jose is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A continued northwest motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the core of Jose will pass close to or just east of the northern Leeward Islands later today. Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Jose is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuation in intensity, up or down, could occur during the next 24 hours. Afterward, gradual weakening is expected to occur. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The minimum central pressure recently measured by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane was 944 mb (27.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area today. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning areas by this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area in the northeastern Leeward Islands by this morning and in the watch area in the Virgin Islands by tonight. RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches in the Leeward Islands from Guadeloupe to Anguilla, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. Jose is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over the Virgin Islands and Dominica. This rainfall will maintain any ongoing flooding and may cause additional life-threatening flooding. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in the hurricane warning and tropical storm warning areas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to continue for a couple of days, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky NNNN