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Hurricane Jose Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
200 PM AST Fri Sep 08 2017

...JOSE REMAINS A POWERFUL HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 57.7W
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Netherlands has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for Saba and St. Eustatius.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla
* Sint Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Sint Maarten
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Montserrat, St Kitts, and Nevis
* British Virgin Islands
* St. Thomas and St. John

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Jose was located near
latitude 16.4 North, longitude 57.7 West. Jose is moving toward the
west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h).  A gradual turn toward the
northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the
next 48 hours.  On the forecast track, the center of Jose will pass
near or east of the northeastern Leeward Islands on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Jose is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in intensity are possible
for the next day or so, and gradual weakening is expected after
that.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km).

The most recent minimum pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter plane was 940 mb (27.76 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area on Saturday, and tropical storm conditions are expected within
the tropical storm warning areas by Saturday morning. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area in the
northeastern Leeward Islands by Saturday morning and in the watch
area in the Virgin Islands by Saturday night.

RAINFALL:  Jose is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 5 inches in the Leeward Islands from Guadeloupe to Anguilla,
with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. Jose is also expected to
produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over the Virgin
Islands and Dominica. This rainfall will maintain any ongoing
flooding and may cause additional life-threatening flooding.

SURF:  Swells generated by Jose are expected to affect portions of
the Leeward Islands beginning this afternoon.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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