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HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  50
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122017
2100 UTC SUN SEP 17 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM FENWICK ISLAND...
DELAWARE...TO SANDY HOOK...NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY
SOUTH...AND FROM EAST ROCKAWAY INLET...NEW YORK...TO PLYMOUTH...
MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND SOUND...BLOCK ISLAND...
MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND NANTUCKET.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FENWICK ISLAND TO SANDY HOOK
* DELAWARE BAY SOUTH
* EAST ROCKAWAY INLET TO PLYMOUTH
* BLOCK ISLAND
* MARTHA'S VINEYARD
* NANTUCKET

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM NORTH CAROLINA
NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOSE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N  71.8W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  967 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  50SE  20SW  40NW.
50 KT....... 80NE  80SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT.......170NE 180SE 100SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 190SW 275NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N  71.8W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.2N  71.8W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 32.7N  71.7W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  50SE  20SW  40NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...180NE 190SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 34.3N  71.8W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  35NW.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 130SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 35.9N  71.9W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...220NE 200SE 160SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 37.7N  71.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...220NE 200SE 150SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 40.1N  69.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 130SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 39.7N  67.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 38.5N  67.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.5N  71.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


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