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HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122017
0300 UTC SAT SEP 09 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBUDA AND ANGUILLA
* SINT MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MONTSERRAT... ST KITTS... AND NEVIS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ST. THOMAS AND ST. JOHN

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N  59.3W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  938 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT.......120NE  80SE  50SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..255NE 135SE 165SW 195NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N  59.3W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N  58.8W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 17.8N  60.8W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  50SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 19.1N  62.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  50SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 20.7N  64.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  50SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 22.4N  66.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 25.3N  68.8W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  80SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 26.8N  68.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 27.7N  66.3W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N  59.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


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