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HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122017
0300 UTC FRI SEP 08 2017
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
ANTIGUA... BARBUDA... AND ANGUILLA.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA... BARBUDA... AND ANGUILLA
* SINT MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA... BARBUDA... AND ANGUILLA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MONTSERRAT... ST KITTS... AND NEVIS
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N  53.9W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  16 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  966 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  15SE  15SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT.......100NE  70SE  50SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE  90SE  90SW 135NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N  53.9W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N  53.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 16.1N  56.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  10SE  15SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  50SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 16.8N  58.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  10SE  15SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  50SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 17.8N  60.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  10SE  15SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  50SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 19.2N  62.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 22.6N  66.1W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 25.8N  68.2W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 27.1N  67.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N  53.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
 
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