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Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number  62
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
500 PM AST Wed Sep 20 2017

Jose has generally changed little since the previous advisory.
Geostationary and microwave satellite data show that the storm is
still producing well-defined convective bands on the north side of
the circulation.  Some of these outer bands are approaching the
southern New England coastline.  The initial wind speed is held at
60 kt based on the earlier aircraft data.  This estimate is also in
fair agreement with an ASCAT pass from earlier today, which also
showed that Jose has a very large wind field.  Another Air Force
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system
later this evening, and should provide a better assessment of
Jose's intensity.

The tropical storm is moving northeastward at 7 kt steered by a
trough over eastern Canada.  This trough should cause Jose to move
east-northeastward at a slower pace tonight.  Thereafter, the
trough is expected to bypass the storm, leaving Jose in very weak
steering currents.  As a result, Jose is forecast to drift westward
beginning Thursday night and continue in that direction through
the weekend.  The models have trended a little to the west at the
end of the forecast period, and the NHC track forecast has followed
suit.

Jose is currently moving along the edge of the Gulf Stream, and is
expected to remain over this oceanic environment for a few more
days.  These relatively cool waters, a progressively drier airmass,
and an expected increase in wind shear should cause a gradual
weakening trend during the next several days.  The models are in
good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC intensity forecast is
largely an update of the previous one.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. While the center of Jose is forecast to remain offshore of the
U.S. east coast, the large cyclone is expected to cause some direct
impacts in portions of New England during the next day or two, and a
tropical storm warning remains in effect for Cape Cod, Block Island,
Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket.

2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware to
southern New England during the next several days.  Please see
products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.

3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda and much of the
U.S. east coast and will likely cause dangerous surf and rip current
conditions for the next several days in these areas.

4. Jose is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of
1 to 2 inches over Martha's Vineyard and Cape Cod, and 2 to 4 inches
in Nantucket as it passes offshore.  This rainfall could cause
isolated flash flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/2100Z 39.2N  69.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  21/0600Z 39.6N  68.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  21/1800Z 39.6N  67.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  22/0600Z 39.6N  68.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  22/1800Z 39.5N  69.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  23/1800Z 39.3N  70.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  24/1800Z 39.3N  70.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  25/1800Z 39.4N  71.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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