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Hurricane Jose Discussion Number  51
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017

Jose's cloud pattern has transformed from one with a tight inner
core to one with a large convective band over the northern
semicircle that wraps around the center.  This change in structure
can be seen in recent microwave imagery and aircraft data that show
an expansion of the radius of maximum winds.  Data from NOAA and Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft still support an initial
wind speed of 80 kt, but the minimum pressure has risen several
millibars since this morning.

Strong southwesterly shear and gradually decreasing sea surface
temperatures along the track of Jose are expected to cause gradual
weakening, however Jose is forecast to maintain hurricane intensity
through 48 hours.  Around that time, Jose is forecast to pass north
of the north wall of the Gulf Stream and over much cooler waters,
which will likely result in an additional decrease in intensity
at 72 h and beyond.  The NHC intensity forecast is in good
agreement with the SHIPS guidance through 72 h, and closer to the
global models at days 4 and 5.

Jose is moving northward at about 8 kt around the western portion
of a mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic.  The track forecast
reasoning is the same as the previous advisory.  Jose should
continue northward during the next day or so, then turn north-
northeastward as a broad mid-latitude trough passes north of the
hurricane.  After the trough passes Jose's longitude in about 72 h,
the cyclone will be left within weak steering currents and is
expected to drift eastward, then southeastward and southward late
in the forecast period.  The NHC track forecast through 72 h is
virtually on top of the previous advisory.  The latest dynamical
model guidance takes Jose a little more westward very late in the
period, and the new NHC track forecast has been shifted to the left
at day 5, close to the latest ECMWF ensemble mean.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. While the center of Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore
of the U.S. coast, the large cyclone could cause some direct impacts
from Delaware northward to New England, and any deviation to the
left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and
magnitude of those impacts.  A tropical storm watch is now in
effect from the Delaware coast to southeastern Massachusetts.
Interests elsewhere along the U.S. east coast from North
Carolina to New England should monitor the progress of Jose
through the next several days.

2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware
to southern New England during the next several days.  Please see
products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.

3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas,
and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause
dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days
in these areas.

4. Jose will produce heavy rain as it passes near southern New
England and the mid-Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Total
accumulations of three to five inches are expected over eastern Long
Island, southern Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts,
including Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket.  Based on the current
forecast, the risk of flooding will be limited in scope.  Any
deviation to the left of the forecast track, however, could bring
heavier and more widespread rainfall to southern New England, Long
Island, New York City, and New Jersey.  If this deviation
were to occur, the risk of urban flash flooding and some river
flooding would increase.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0300Z 32.2N  71.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  18/1200Z 33.4N  71.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  19/0000Z 34.9N  71.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  19/1200Z 36.6N  71.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  20/0000Z 38.3N  71.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  21/0000Z 40.2N  68.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  22/0000Z 39.5N  68.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  23/0000Z 38.5N  68.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Brown

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