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Hurricane Jose Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 10 2017


The eye of Hurricane Jose has been absent in satellite imagery since
earlier today as increasing high-level northerly shear has weakened
the cyclone. This shear is evident in the latest infrared imagery,
with cold cloud tops streaming southward from the center. The
initial intensity has been lowered to 100 kt with this advisory,
based on a blend of subjective and objective Dvorak satellite
intensity estimates.

The initial motion for this advisory is 325/12 kt, with Jose
expected to move toward the north on Monday as a mid-level ridge
centered to the east erodes. As Jose moves north of this ridge in 36
hours or so, a complex and dynamic steering pattern is expected to
result in Jose completing a clockwise loop over the western Atlantic
through the 5-day forecast period. Despite the complexity, this
solution is shared by all the guidance, and the current forecast
cycle features better agreement amongst the reliable models. The
official track forecast closely resembles the previous one, and lies
close to the TVCN and GFEX consensus models.

Jose is now experiencing about 20 kt of northerly shear, associated
with an upper-level ridge centered to the west. Northerly shear is
still expected to increase over the next 12 to 24 hours, and remain
moderately strong for a couple of days. Additional weakening is
therefore expected through 72 hours despite SSTs sufficiently warm
(near 29C) to support an intense cyclone. There remains a chance
that Jose moves over its own cold wake on days 3 and 4 as indicated
by latest HWRF guidance, which would lead to a greater amount of
weakening. Toward the latter part of the forecast period, the shear
may relax enough to allow for some reintensification, but the
confidence in this is somewhat low. The latest intensity forecast
is very close to the IVCN consensus and the SHIPS model.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0300Z 23.7N  68.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  11/1200Z 25.2N  69.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  12/0000Z 26.5N  69.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  12/1200Z 26.9N  68.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  13/0000Z 26.5N  67.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  14/0000Z 25.0N  67.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  15/0000Z 24.5N  69.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  16/0000Z 25.5N  72.5W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Birchard

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