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Hurricane JOSE


Hurricane Jose Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 07 2017

Jose is developing an eye.  Convection remains very symmetric around
the center, and a well-defined mid-level eye has been evident in
microwave imagery throughout the morning.  Outflow remains well
established in all quadrants, despite the close proximity of Irma
to the west, perhaps in part due to the small size of Jose.  The
initial intensity has been held at 80 kt, based on the latest Dvorak
classifications from TAFB and SAB.  However, the overall trend of
intensification is not likely to have ended, and Jose is still
forecast to become a major hurricane in about 24 h.  After about 48
h, most of the intensity guidance indicates that Jose will begin to
weaken, but the extent of that weakening varies quite a bit, in
part due to uncertainty surrounding how much the shear from a
deep-layer trough to the north and Irma may affect Jose after it
passes the Leeward Islands.  The official forecast is still close to
the HWRF for the first 36 h, and close to the intensity consensus,
IVCN, after that.

The initial motion remains 285/16 kt.  Almost no change has been
made to the first 36 h of the forecast, and the hurricane is still
expected to continue west-northwestward, along the southern extent
of the subtropical ridge. Beyond that time, the global models
suggest that an approaching mid-latitude trough will cause the
ridge to retreat, causing Jose to turn more toward the northwest,
and eventually toward the north. Based on the lastest model runs,
this turn may happen a little later than previously expected. Thus,
the NHC official forecast has been nudged toward the west at days
3-5, and is close to the multi-model consensus, TVCX.


INIT  07/1500Z 14.9N  50.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  08/0000Z 15.4N  53.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  08/1200Z 16.0N  56.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  09/0000Z 16.6N  58.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  09/1200Z 17.5N  60.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  10/1200Z 20.3N  64.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  11/1200Z 24.0N  67.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  12/1200Z 27.0N  68.5W   65 KT  75 MPH

Forecaster Zelinsky