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Tropical Storm JOSE


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 05 2017

Jose continues to gradually strengthen.  Geostationary and
microwave satellite images indicate that the center of the system
is located on the north side of the main area of deep convection.
Fragmented curved bands also exist to the north of the center.  The
initial intensity is nudged upward to 45 kt, based on a recent
ASCAT pass.  This wind speed estimate is also in agreement with a
T3.0/45 kt Dvorak classification from TAFB and similar ADT values
from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin.

Satellite fixes suggest that Jose is moving westward at 12 kt.  A
slightly faster westward to west-northwestward motion is expected
during the next 3 days while Jose moves in the flow on the south and
southwest sides of a subtropical high.  After that time, a slower
northwestward motion is forecast when Jose moves into a weakness in
the ridge.  Although the models agree on the overall scenario, there
is a considerable amount of spread in the 4 to 5 day period on when
and where Jose makes the northwest turn.  The NHC official track
forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope, in best
agreement with the various consensus models.

The tropical storm is expected to remain in conducive environmental
conditions for strengthening during the next few days, and Jose will
likely become a hurricane in about 24 hours and could be near major
hurricane strength by 72 hours.  Thereafter, an increase in
northerly shear and some drier air should end the strengthening
trend and cause some weakening.  The NHC intensity follows the ICON
and HCCA consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0300Z 12.3N  41.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  06/1200Z 12.8N  43.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  07/0000Z 13.5N  46.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  07/1200Z 14.2N  49.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  08/0000Z 14.9N  52.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  09/0000Z 16.7N  57.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  10/0000Z 19.2N  59.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  11/0000Z 22.4N  62.8W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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