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Tropical Storm JOSE


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Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
500 PM AST Tue Sep 05 2017

A distinct curved band of deep convection wraps more than half way
around the center of Jose in its southern semicircle.  Due to the
improved structure, the Dvorak Current Intensity numbers from TAFB
and SAB have increased to a 3.0 and 2.0, respectively.  A blend of
these input gives a 40 kt intensity for the initial time.

Jose's current motion is assessed to be west at 11 kt, though this
is uncertain due to not knowing the initial position with much
confidence.  Jose should move toward the west or west-northwest for
the next three to four days at a slightly faster rate of forward
speed as it moves south of the deep-layer Azores-Bermuda high.  In
about four to five days, Jose should turn toward the northwest and
slow as it reaches the southwestern periphery of the high.  The
official track forecast is primarily based upon a blend of the
ECMWF-UKMET model output and is nearly unchanged from the previous
advisory.

The environment in which Jose is located in appears to be quite
conducive for development for the next three days as the SSTs are
very warm, the vertical shear is very low, and there is abundant
mid-level moisture.  By days four and five, however, the vertical
shear may increase in part due to the outflow from Hurricane Irma to
its west.  Thus the official intensity forecast shows steady
intensification until day three, then decreases slightly to day
five.  This forecast is based upon the IVCN multi-model consensus
technique, but has the usual - large - uncertainties at the long
forecast ranges.

No new observations have been available, so I have let it ride for
the initial tropical-storm-wind radii.  The official size forecast
indicates a gradual increase in size, based upon the RVCN
multi-model consensus approach.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/2100Z 12.5N  40.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  06/0600Z 12.9N  42.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  06/1800Z 13.6N  45.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  07/0600Z 14.3N  48.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  07/1800Z 14.9N  51.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  08/1800Z 16.5N  56.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  09/1800Z 18.7N  59.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  10/1800Z 22.0N  63.0W   85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Landsea

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