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Hurricane Irma Intermediate Advisory Number 48A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
200 AM EDT Mon Sep 11 2017
...IRMA WEAKENING AS IT MOVES OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM NW OF LAKELAND FLORIDA
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NE OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...135 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River southward to Jupiter Inlet
* North Miami Beach southward around the Florida peninsula to the
* Florida Keys
* Tampa Bay
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* North of Jupiter Inlet to Fernandina Beach
* North of Bonita Beach to Indian Pass
* Lake Okeechobee
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Fernandina Beach to Edisto Beach
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita
* Florida Keys
* Florida Bay
* West of Indian Pass to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
* North of Fernandina Beach to South Santee River
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bimini and Grand Bahama
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
Interests elsewhere in the southeastern United States should monitor
the progress of Irma.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located
by NOAA Doppler radar and surface observations near latitude 28.2
North, longitude 82.2 West. Irma is moving toward the north-
northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the northwest at a
faster forward speed is expected during the next day or so. On the
forecast track, the center of Irma will continue to move over the
western Florida peninsula through this morning and then into the
southeastern United States late today and Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (135 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Irma is
expected to become a tropical storm over far northern Florida or
southern Georgia later today.
Irma has a very large wind field. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-
force winds extend outward up to 415 miles (665 km). The National
Ocean Service station at the Clearwater Beach Pier recently
reported a wind gust of 88 mph (142 km/h), and wind gusts of
hurricane force have been recently reported at the Orlando
International and the Orlando Executive airports.
The minimum central pressure estimated from surface observations is
960 mb (28.35 inches). Lakeland Regional Airport recently reported
a pressure of 963.4 mb (28.45 inches) as the center passed just to
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Cape Sable to Captiva...4 to 6 ft
Captiva to Anna Maria Island...3 to 5 ft
North Miami Beach to Cape Sable, including the Florida Keys...3 to 5
Anna Maria Island to Clearwater Beach, including Tampa Bay...2 to 4
South Santee River to Fernandina Beach...4 to 6 ft
Clearwater Beach to Ochlockonee River...4 to 6 ft
Fernandina Beach to Jupiter Inlet...3 to 5 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
WIND: Hurricane conditions are continuing across portions of the
central Florida peninsula. Winds affecting the upper floors of
high-rise buildings will be significantly stronger than those near
ground level. Tropical storm conditions will continue across
portions of southern Florida and the Florida Keys through the
morning. Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are expected
to spread northward across the remainder of the warning areas
through today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions
of the warning area in the Northwestern Bahamas for the next
RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Wednesday:
Western Bahamas...Additional 2 to 4 inches.
The Florida Keys...Additional 1 inch possible with storm total
amounts from 15 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches.
Western Florida peninsula...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches.
Eastern Florida peninsula and southeast Georgia...8 to 12 inches,
isolated 16 inches.
The rest of Georgia, the eastern Florida Panhandle, southern and
western South Carolina, and western North Carolina...3 to 8 inches,
isolated 12 inches.
Southern Tennessee, northern Mississippi and much of Alabama...2 to
In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across northeast Florida
and southeast portions of Georgia and South Carolina through
SURF: Swells generated by Irma are affecting the southeast coast of
the United States. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. The center of Irma is
becoming less well defined in National Weather Service Doppler
radar data, so hourly radar-based position updates are being
discontinued at this time.