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ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Hurricane Irma Intermediate Advisory Number 44A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 200 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017 ...IRMA NOW A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE AS IT GETS CLOSER TO THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.7N 81.3W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM N OF VARADERO CUBA ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...210 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB...27.49 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River southward to Jupiter Inlet * North Miami Beach southward around the Florida peninsula to the Ochlockonee River * Florida Keys * Tampa Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Fernandina Beach southward around the Florida peninsula to Indian Pass * Florida Keys * Lake Okeechobee * Florida Bay * Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Matanzas, and La Habana * Andros Island, Bimini, and Grand Bahama A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Fernandina Beach to Edisto Beach A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West of Indian Pass to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line * North of Fernandina Beach to South Santee River A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the southeastern United States should monitor the progress of Irma. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 23.7 North, longitude 81.3 West. Irma is moving slowly northwestward toward the lower Florida Keys at near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected through late Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Irma is expected to cross the Lower Florida Keys during the next several hours, and then move near or along the west coast of Florida this afternoon through Monday morning. Irma should then move inland over the Florida panhandle and southwestern Georgia Monday afternoon. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (210 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is now a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Irma is forecast to restrengthen a little more while it moves through the Straits of Florida and remain a powerful hurricane as it approaches the Florida Keys and the west coast of Florida. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). A private anemometer at Marathon Key, Florida, recently reported a wind gust of 88 mph (141 km/h). The latest minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 931 mb (27.49 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Cape Sable to Captiva...10 to 15 ft Captiva to Ana Maria Island...6 to 10 ft Card Sound Bridge through Cape Sable, including the Florida Keys... 5 to 10 ft Ana Maria Island to Clearwater Beach, including Tampa Bay... 5 to 8 ft North Miami Beach to Card Sound Bridge, including Biscayne Bay... 3 to 5 ft South Santee River to Fernandina Beach...4 to 6 ft Clearwater Beach to Ochlockonee River...4 to 6 ft Fernandina Beach to Jupiter Inlet...2 to 4 ft North of North Miami Beach to Jupiter Inlet...1 to 2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Northwestern Bahamas...3 to 6 ft Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area...5 to 10 ft WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continue within the hurricane warning area along the north coast of Cuba through this morning. Hurricane conditions are expected in portions of the Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys beginning in the next several hours, and in the northwestern Bahamas for the next few hours. Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are expected to spread northward across the remainder of the warning areas through Monday. RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Wednesday: Northern Cuba...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches. Southern Cuba...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. Western Bahamas...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. The Florida Keys...10 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches. The Florida peninsula and southeast Georgia...8 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches. The eastern Florida Panhandle and southern South Carolina...4 to 8 inches, isolated 10 inches. Rest of eastern Georgia, western South Carolina, and western North Carolina...4 to 8 inches. Western Georgia, eastern and northern Alabama, and southern Tennessee...2 to 5 inches. In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and, in some areas, mudslides. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through Sunday night, mainly across southern, central, and eastern portions of the Florida peninsula. THE EYE: Do not venture outside when the calm eye of the hurricane passes over, as dangerous winds will return very quickly when the eye moves away. SURF: Swells generated by Irma are affecting the southeast coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven NNNN