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HURRICANE IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  48
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112017
0300 UTC MON SEP 11 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO BONITA
BEACH...AS WELL AS FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET
* NORTH MIAMI BEACH SOUTHWARD AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE
OCHLOCKONEE RIVER
* FLORIDA KEYS
* TAMPA BAY

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO FERNANDINA BEACH
* NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO INDIAN PASS
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF FERNANDINA BEACH TO EDISTO BEACH

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO BONITA
BEACH
* FLORIDA KEYS
* FLORIDA BAY
* WEST OF INDIAN PASS TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE
* NORTH OF FERNANDINA BEACH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BIMINI AND GRAND BAHAMA

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.  PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.  PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF IRMA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N  81.9W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  952 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE  60SE  30SW  50NW.
50 KT.......140NE 140SE  90SW 120NW.
34 KT.......360NE 200SE 150SW 240NW.
12 FT SEAS..450NE 180SE 300SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N  81.9W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.8N  81.7W

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 29.4N  82.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
50 KT...110NE 100SE  70SW  80NW.
34 KT...270NE 200SE 150SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 31.9N  84.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...180NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 33.9N  86.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 35.0N  88.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 37.5N  87.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.5N  81.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


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