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HURRICANE IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112017
1500 UTC FRI SEP 08 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED FROM JUPITER INLET
NORTHWARD TO SEBASTIAN INLET AND FROM BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO
VENICE.

A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO
PONCE INLET.

THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA TO THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE...AND ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF FLORIDA TO ANCLOTE RIVER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO VENICE
* FLORIDA KEYS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO PONCE INLET

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO BONITA
BEACH
* FLORIDA KEYS
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* FLORIDA BAY
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY... CIEGO DE AVILA... SANCTI
SPIRITUS... AND
VILLA CLARA
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE
* NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO ANCLOTE RIVER
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO... HOLGUIN... LAS TUNAS AND MATANZAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO... HOLGUIN... AND LAS TUNAS

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.  PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.  PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE... IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA... FLORIDA... AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED
STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRMA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N  75.3W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  927 MB
EYE DIAMETER  40 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE  45SE  35SW  55NW.
50 KT.......100NE  90SE  50SW  80NW.
34 KT.......160NE 120SE  80SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..540NE 270SE 120SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N  75.3W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N  74.7W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.4N  77.1W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  50SE  35SW  50NW.
50 KT...100NE  70SE  50SW  80NW.
34 KT...170NE 120SE  90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 22.8N  79.0W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  50SE  35SW  50NW.
50 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  90NW.
34 KT...170NE 130SE  90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 23.7N  80.3W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
50 KT...110NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.
34 KT...170NE 140SE 110SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 25.0N  81.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
50 KT...110NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.
34 KT...190NE 170SE 130SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 29.3N  82.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT...130NE 110SE  80SW 100NW.
34 KT...250NE 210SE 160SW 200NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 34.0N  85.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 36.0N  87.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N  75.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


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