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HURRICANE IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112017
1500 UTC THU SEP 07 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM
JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD AND AROUND THE PENINSULA TO BONITA BEACH...
INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM
JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD AND AROUND THE PENINSULA TO BONITA BEACH...
INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS...LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND FLORIDA BAY.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING TO
VILLA CLARA PROVINCE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO BONITA
BEACH
* FLORIDA KEYS

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH
HAITI
* HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO LE
MOLE ST. NICHOLAS
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO BONITA
BEACH
* FLORIDA KEYS
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* FLORIDA BAY
* CUBA FROM MATANZAS PROVINCE EASTWARD TO GUANTANAMO PROVINCE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SOUTH OF CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI
* HAITI FROM SOUTH OF LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS TO PORT-AU-PRINCE
* CUBA PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO... HOLGUIN... LAS TUNAS...
CAMAGUEY... CIEGO DE AVILA... SANCTI SPIRITUS AND VILLA CLARA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION, FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE, IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...AS WELL
AS CUBA AND FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRMA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N  69.7W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  921 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 150 KT WITH GUSTS TO 185 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
50 KT.......100NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT.......160NE 120SE  80SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..540NE 210SE  75SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N  69.7W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N  69.0W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 21.1N  71.7W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
50 KT...100NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...170NE 120SE  90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.9N  74.2W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  35SW  50NW.
50 KT...100NE  70SE  50SW  80NW.
34 KT...180NE 130SE  90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.5N  76.5W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
50 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...180NE 140SE 100SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 23.1N  78.4W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
50 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 100SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 25.5N  80.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
50 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 110SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 30.1N  80.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 35.0N  82.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N  69.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


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