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Hurricane IRMA


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HURRICANE IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112017
0300 UTC MON SEP 04 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA... BARBUDA... ANGUILLA... MONTSERRAT... ST. KITTS... AND
NEVIS
* SABA... ST. EUSTATIUS... AND SINT MAARTEN
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY

INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... THE BRITISH AND
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS... AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF IRMA.  ADDITIONAL HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA ON MONDAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N  51.0W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  961 MB
EYE DIAMETER  25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  20SE  15SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT.......120NE  80SE  50SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..390NE 150SE 150SW 390NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N  51.0W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N  50.4W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 16.7N  52.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  15SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE  80SE  50SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 16.5N  54.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE  90SE  60SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 16.8N  57.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE  70SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 17.4N  59.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE  80SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.3N  65.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE  90SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 21.2N  70.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 22.8N  74.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N  51.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

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