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POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102017
2100 UTC SUN AUG 27 2017

CORRECTED TO INCLUDE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS IN THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH.

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH
CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO
SOUNDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO DUCK
* ALBEMARLE SOUND
* PAMLICO SOUND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.2N  80.0W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   0 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.2N  80.0W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.0N  80.0W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 31.6N  80.1W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 32.4N  80.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 34.1N  78.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 36.6N  75.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  40SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 40.0N  66.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE   0SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...180NE 210SE 180SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 43.0N  55.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 47.0N  43.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.2N  80.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


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