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Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102017
1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2017

Surface observations near and offshore the southern coast of North
Carolina indicate that an elongated circulation and pressure minimum
are located over Onslow Bay, but satellite imagery still shows no
signs of a well-defined center.  In addition, a sharp wind shift,
associated with a front, extends northeastward across Pamlico and
Albemarle Sounds and the Outer Banks.  Maximum winds remain 35 kt
for continuity's sake since there have been no recent observations
of sustained tropical-storm-force winds.

The disturbance has so far failed to become a tropical cyclone, and
since vertical shear is 30-40 kt and increasing, it appears that it
now has a low chance of doing so before it becomes extratropical
later today.  Baroclinic energy from the approaching shortwave
trough should cause the extratropical cyclone to strengthen
significantly during the next day or two, and it is forecast to be
producing hurricane-force winds over the northwestern Atlantic by
36 hours.  Gradual weakening is expected after that time until the
cyclone is absorbed on day 5.  The track, intensity, and wind radii
forecasts continue to incorporate guidance provided by NOAA's Ocean
Prediction Center.

The disturbance is accelerating toward the northeast with an
initial motion of 045/15 kt, and it is likely to clear the Outer
Banks into the western Atlantic by late this afternoon.  The system
is embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies, and it will be
interacting with a shortwave trough moving east of the Great Lakes
during the next couple of days.  This will cause the disturbance to
continue accelerating toward the northeast or east-northeast over
the north Atlantic for the next 4 days.  The cyclone is expected to
be absorbed by another extratropical low by day 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/1500Z 34.4N  77.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  30/0000Z 36.6N  73.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  30/1200Z 38.8N  69.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  31/0000Z 40.4N  63.8W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  31/1200Z 41.8N  58.4W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  01/1200Z 45.8N  45.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  02/1200Z 51.0N  29.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  03/1200Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Berg

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