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Tropical Storm HARVEY


ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092017               
0300 UTC FRI AUG 18 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
FRONTERA MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
 
MERIDA MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   6(11)
COZUMEL MX     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
BELIZE CITY    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  16(24)
BELIZE CITY    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
BELIZE CITY    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
PUERTO BARRIOS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  10(14)
PUERTO BARRIOS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GUANAJA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  22(22)  10(32)
GUANAJA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   4(11)
GUANAJA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
PUERTO CABEZAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  18(19)   1(20)
PUERTO CABEZAS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)
PUERTO CABEZAS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
BLUEFIELDS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
SAN ANDRES     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   X( 9)
 
PT GALLINAS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   6(12)   X(12)   X(12)
PT GALLINAS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CURACAO        34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   X(10)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   2(12)   X(12)
 
KINGSTON       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)   2(16)   X(16)
 
LES CAYES      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
CAPE BEATA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   4( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
PONCE PR       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
AGUADILLA PR   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GUADELOUPE     34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
AVES           34  X   6( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
DOMINICA       34  1   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
MARTINIQUE     34  3  13(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
SAINT LUCIA    34  6  34(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)
 
SAINT VINCENT  34  3  21(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 
BARBADOS       34 18   2(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    
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