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Tropical Storm HARVEY


Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number  41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
1000 AM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

Harvey has changed little in organization since landfall, with
satellite and radar data showing continued convective banding, most
notably in the northwestern quadrant.  Winds gusts of 35-45 kt have
been reported over the coastal regions south of the center, and the
central pressure has risen only slightly to 993 mb.  Based on these
data, the initial intensity remains 40 kt.  It should be noted that
a large area of winds just below tropical-storm-force is occurring
over the Gulf of Mexico south of the coasts of south-central and
southeastern Louisiana.

Radar and surface observations indicate that the center of Harvey
moved northward for a period of several hours near landfall, but now
is resuming a north-northeastward motion of roughly 020/7.  The
cyclone is located on the northwestern side of a mid-tropospheric
high, which should steer it north-northeastward and then
northeastward across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys
during the next few days until the system dissipates.

Harvey should gradually weaken as it moves farther inland, with the
intensity expected to drop below tropical-storm strength shortly
after the 12 h point.  Subsequently, the system should decay to a
remnant low by 72 h and dissipate completely by 96 h.  The forecast
weakening will not eliminate the risk of continued heavy rainfall
and flooding along Harvey's path, although the system's faster
motion will prevent rainfall totals from being anywhere near what
occurred over southeastern Texas.

Key Messages:

1. Ongoing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding will continue
across southeastern Texas.  While the threat of heavy rains has
ended in the Houston/Galveston area, catastrophic and life-
threatening flooding will continue in and around Houston,
Beaumont/Port Arthur, eastward into southwest Louisiana for the rest
of the week. Isolated storm totals have reached 50 inches over the
upper Texas coast, including the Houston/Galveston metropolitan
area. Please heed the advice of local officials.  Do not attempt to
travel if you are in a safe place, and do not drive into flooded
roadways. Refer to products from your local National Weather Service
office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information
on the flooding hazard.  A summary of rainfall totals compiled by
the Weather Prediction Center can be found at:

2. The flood threat has spread farther north and east, and
additional rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with isolated
amounts up to 10 inches are expected from southwestern Louisiana and
the adjacent border of eastern Texas northeastward into western
Kentucky through Friday.  Please heed the advice of local officials
and refer to products from your local National Weather Service
office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information
on the flooding hazard in these areas.


INIT  30/1500Z 30.5N  93.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 12H  31/0000Z 31.4N  92.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 24H  31/1200Z 32.8N  91.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  01/0000Z 34.4N  90.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 48H  01/1200Z 35.8N  88.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 72H  02/1200Z 38.5N  84.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  03/1200Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Beven