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Tropical Storm HARVEY (Text)


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Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number  31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2017

The unprecedented flooding rainfall event continues to unfold over
much of southeastern Texas.  Harvey has been moving slowly east-
southeastward during the past few hours, and heavy rainbands
continue to form over the northwestern Gulf and train inland over
much of the upper Texas coast and southwestern Louisiana.  Storm
total rainfall amounts in the 20-27 inch range have been observed
across much of the Greater Houston area, and additional rainfall
amounts of 15 to 25 inches are expected over the next several days.
Rainfall totals could reach 50 inches in some locations, which would
be historic for that area.

There haven't been any observations of sustained 34-kt winds over
land for the past few hours, but the initial intensity remains 35
kt based on the assumption that higher winds are occuring over
water, likely in rainbands.  The track guidance continues to show
Harvey moving just offshore of the Texas coast on Monday, then
turning northward and moving inland over northeastern Texas in 48 to
72 hours.  All of the global models show some slight deepening of
the system after it moves over water, but given the lack of an inner
core, significant strengthening is not anticipated.  The new NHC
track and intensity forecasts are similar to those from the previous
advisory.

Although the tropical storm warning has been expanded, and may need
to be extended eastward along the upper Texas and southwest
Louisiana coasts tomorrow morning, heavy rainfall and life-
threatening flooding continue to be the primary threats.

Key Messages:

1. Ongoing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding will continue
across southeastern Texas.  Additional rainfall accumulations of 15
to 25 inches are expected across the upper Texas coast, with
isolated storm totals as high as 50 inches.  Please heed the advice
of local officials.  Do not attempt to travel if you are in a safe
place, and do not drive into flooded roadways.  Refer to products
from your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather
Prediction Center for more information on the flooding hazard.  A
summary of rainfall totals compiled by the Weather Prediction Center
can be found at: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

2. The flood threat is spreading farther east into Louisiana.
Additional rainfall amounts of 15 to 25 inches are expected in
southwestern Louisiana, with rainfall amounts of 5 to 15 inches
expected in south-central Louisiana.  Please heed the advice of
local officials and refer to products from your local National
Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for
more information on the flooding hazard in these areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0300Z 28.8N  96.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 12H  28/1200Z 28.6N  96.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 24H  29/0000Z 28.3N  96.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
 36H  29/1200Z 28.4N  95.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  30/0000Z 28.8N  95.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
 72H  31/0000Z 30.5N  94.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 96H  01/0000Z 32.3N  93.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
120H  02/0000Z 34.0N  92.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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Page last modified: Sunday, 31-Dec-2017 12:09:18 UTC