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Tropical Storm HARVEY


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Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
400 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

Harvey has continued to weaken while located inland over Texas.
Doppler radar data indicate that winds are now 55 kt, and since
there are no surface observations near the center, this is the
intensity used in this advisory. A continued weakening is
anticipated, and the NHC forecast uses the trend provided by the
SHIPS decay model. However, if a large portion of Harvey's
circulation remains over the Gulf of Mexico, the cyclone could
weaken at a slower rate than shown here.

Harvey has barely moved during the past few hours and little motion
is anticipated. Since the steering currents are forecast to remain
light, Harvey could easily meander for the next 4 to 5 days over
southeast Texas as indicated in the NHC forecast. Guidance disagrees
in which direction the cyclone will move, but all the models agree
that any motion will be quite slow.


Key Messages:

1. While Harvey's winds are decreasing, life-threatening hazards
will continue from heavy rainfall over much of southeastern
Texas and from storm surge along portions of the Texas coast.

2. Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding is expected across the
middle and upper Texas coast from additional rainfall of 15 to
25 inches, with isolated storm totals as high as 40 inches, through
Thursday.  Please heed the advice of local officials and do not
drive into flooded roadways.  Refer to products from your local
National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction
Center for more information on the flooding hazard.  A summary of
rainfall totals compiled by the Weather Prediction Center can be
found at: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

3. A Storm Surge Warning remains in effect for portions of the
Texas coast.  Life-threatening storm surge flooding will be slow to
recede due to the slow motion of Harvey and a prolonged period of
onshore flow.  For a depiction of areas at risk, see the Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic at hurricanes.gov.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/2100Z 29.1N  97.6W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 12H  27/0600Z 29.1N  97.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 24H  27/1800Z 28.9N  97.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  28/0600Z 28.5N  97.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  28/1800Z 28.3N  97.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  29/1800Z 28.7N  97.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 96H  30/1800Z 29.5N  97.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
120H  31/1800Z 30.5N  97.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Avila

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